Abstract

Elections play a significant role in democratic governance. The present investigation exhibited changing scenario as the importance of numerous factors is replaced by others which affects the magnitude of voting behavior of common peoples participating in electoral politics. It elucidates the causes that constitute political affiliation in District Dera Ghazi Khan. During our field surveys most of the respondents pleaded that Biradari and caste system encounter political leadership at local and country levels. The results reflect that people of District Dera Ghazi Khan (tribal and rural area) were mostly in favor of caste based preferences of political leader in electoral system. Peoples had their own preferences and vision across the literate or illiterate voter. The voter decides independently which person would be suitable political leader in his constituency.

Key Words

South Punjab Politics, Voting Behavior, General Election Comparison, Modern Trends in Politics

Introduction

In Pakistan political personalities have overriding effects on elections and political processes. Current research presents the election 2002 and behavior of the people of District Dera Ghazi Khan located in South Punjab and demographically is populated district of can be segregated in rural and urban areas. Like all world nations including Pakistan inherited vote based Political system. After independence Pakistan, a total of eleven General Elections have been held up. The political system in Pakistan is continuously facing novelty in terms of established infrastructure of vote casting system for selecting their political leaders.  The first General Election was held in December 1970, after seven year second General Election was held in 1977. The framework was additionally overhauled in 1977 to permit ideological groups to partake and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) won significantly. It has additionally come about into military takeover as results were not acknowledged by ideological groups. Later on, General Elections were held in 1985 on a gathering less assertion which were boycotted by most Political Parties subsequently Elections were held in 1988, 1990, 1993, 1997, 2002, 2008, 2013 and 2018 separately. The greater part of Political science researchers portrayed that time of 2013 is to be reflected as an achievement throughout the entire existence of majority rules system of Pakistan as it was the finish of move of intensity after fulfillment of full residency of common government. In this general election, all the gatherings partook with full force and spirits. The focal point of the specialist is 2013 political decision as the examination paper depends on the General Election 2013 at National Assembly level of Southern Punjab (District Bahawalpur). Kamran, (2009) presented that during the early phase of Pakistan’s political history the electoral politics encountered by turbulent. Outrageous centralization and the major role contributed by the administrative in the conduct of four general elections had been of significance in the ultimate consequence of the electoral exercise. Since 1947, establishment of Pakistan to 2018 a total of 13 General elections were held. 

Literature Review

Afzal, (2000) conducted research work and reported that the first-time general elections held in March 1952, in Pakistan. Ahmad, (2004) reported that there were no general elections apprehended in Pakistan from 1947 to 1958, at the national level. Adma and Schoresch (2007) described the Political crisis of Pakistan. Ibrahim and Musaratt, (2015) conducted a research and presented the history of elections in Pakistan from 1947 to 1985 and described the role of political hierarchy. Khan and Musarrat (2014) described that after elections 1985, the assembly existed for eight year. The next general election was held on 1988, which allowed the PPP approaching in authority but ended in two years. By gap of less than two years in again in 1990, general was experienced. After independence of Pakistan, there were only three assemblies that completed their duration. Anwar, (1991) presented studies that during 1990, the general elections exhibited the right-wing alliance establishing the government and sacked in 1993.In 1997, PML (N) appeared as efficacious political party and reached the heavy mandate. Close to the Sharif's popularity inside 1998 and popular tranquility initiatives it happened within 1999, the conspiracy seemed to be hatched against Sharif by simply General Musharraf, condemning Sharif of hijacking the voyager plane and imposed terrorism charges against Nawaz Sharif within the military courts plus ultimately sacked Sharif's govt. Khan, (2003), presented overview of “General elections 2002 in Pakistan. General Musharraf peacefully held, ordered by the Supreme Court, bearing Sharif and Benazir Bhutto from keeping the public office. Zafarullah Jamali was declared as new Prime minister in 2002.Rauf and Shah, (2015) reported a research work entitled “Determinants of Turnout in Elections: A Case Study of 2008 general election” and described that 2008 general elections endorsed the PPP, later on it was encountered with load shedding, law and order situation, foreign policy clashes, and poor economic performances in the country. The Ziring (2004) discusses that Pakistan is struggling state internally as well as externally. Internally, he discusses the failure of electoral system for proper political process and development for Sound democracy. He has highlighted that Pakistani society is heterogeneous and they differ socially, culturally and religiously. Hence, they are not one nation and this creates distance between the ruler and the ruled. Externally he explains that Pakistan is under foreign influence due to her economic and defense interdependence. It results in the foreign interference in the domestic matters of Pakistan. Alvi (1997) concludes that only economically sound voters likely to make voting decisions in line with biradri/caste and argued that economically dependent voters vote accordingly to the voting decisions of those whom they depend on in other words voter’s employers. Thus, economic dependent/independence is even more fundamental factor of voting behavior. Chaudhry, et al., (2014) demonstrated that in rural areas of Pakistan biradri system is strongly interlinked. Particularly, Biradari system is significantly contribute in general election. Aziz et al., (2014) described role of voting behavior in electoral politics. They described that Biradri system is resilient cause for success of political leaders of any political party. They expressed the political voting behavior of different peoples during general election 2013 in district Layyah, Pakistan and concluded that most of respondents vote for the specific political leader not for the party. Shah and Rauf, (2015) described that studies for understanding of different voting behavior in Punjab possess its own importance, but it is obvious to elucidate the political behavior at the micro scale (District level) as well as gradient scale (Division level). The measuring level of democratization is encountered by Turnout in elections. It is generally considered that in Pakistan during general elections do not have decent turnout. They concluded that turnout in election is indomitable by various aspects extending from personal and group leverages to structural arrangements. Ahmad et al., (2014) described the research work to delimit the role of Gender and their voting behavior. They tried to demonstrate effects of Biradari based voting behavior during general election on Politics of Punjab. They reported that Biradari is a significant determinant feature for any electoral system, and encounter local and national level politics. Besides this, the recommended that significantly female gender role is very imperative. Khan and Musarrat, (2014) described that in Pakistan the electoral procedure was not consistent. In Pakistan, elections and the political process are directed by political personalities. Even though the fact that there is a multiparty framework, most of peoples incline toward two principle parties, PML-N and the PPP, so far it is positive that the third party PTI has developed in the nation as an outsider in Pakistan. With respect to as current political system nourishing in our country is subjected to caste system and variant impact of voting behavior, particularly in Punjab bury connected texture of biradari is very strong to choose the political leader. However, no applied research and knowledge in terms of voting behavior of different peoples to cast their vote based on biradari affection. Much of the research has been done by many researches at national and international level in electoral politics, elections and impact of voting behavior on electoral politics, but little information is available about studying electoral trends, analyzing constituencies, and collecting data at patch scale (Micro-scale District level) and Gradient Scale (Division level) . The electoral data available is related to party performance and alliance politics but is fragmentary. We have tried to elucidate the modern trends in electoral politics in terms of factors affect citizens' electoral experience and behavior for selecting their political leader at gradient scale and variations in public behaviors.

Results and Discussion

Study Area

Dera Ghazi Khan is an important division of Punjab and located between 30°03'22.10" N latitude and 70°38'5.17" E longitude.

Figure 1

Showing Map of D.G. Khan Saraiki is the main spoken language in cities and towns. (Table 2 &3). This district is delineated into the further three Tehsils and ninety-eight union councils.



1.       Dera Ghazi Khan

2.       Kot Chutta

3.       Taunsa

 

Population

Total Human population harboring in District Dera Ghazi Khan is exceeding ten million as reported by census report published in 2017, consisting of more than fifteen Lac male genders, fourteen Lac female and She male / Transgender are less than one hundred. Average annual growth rate is 2.98 from 1998 to 2017. The demographic population density is less than two hundred persons per square kilometers (Table 1).

 

Table 1. Dera Ghazi Khan Census Report 2017

	Rural	Urban	Total
Inhabitants	2324347.00	547855.00	2872201.00
Men	1171503.00	278603.00	1450105.00
Women	1152807.00	269226.00	1422013.00
Transgender	38.00	35.00	73.00
Household	270525.00	72838.00	343371.00

 

Table 2. Constituency Wise Result of District Dera Ghazi Khan in National Assembly in General Election 2002

Constituency	Winning Candidates	Political Party	Number of Registered Votes	Pooled Votes
NA189	Khawja Sheraz Mehmood	PTI	330959	78596
NA190	Muhammad Amjad Farooq Khan Khosa	PTI	315269	71964
NA191	Zartaj Gull	PTI	380414	79817
NA192	Sardar Muhammad Khan Leghari	PTI	302437	80522

 

Table 3. Constituency Wise Result of Dera Ghazi Khan in Punjab Assembly Election 2018

Constituency	Winning Candidates	Political Party	Number of   Registered Votes	Pooled Votes
PP-285	Khawaja Muhammad Daud Sulimani	PTI	94305	27884
PP-286	Usman Ahmad Khan Buzdar	PTI	79752	27027
PP-287	JaveedAkhter	PTI	83415	42847
PP-288	Mohsin Atta Khosa	Independent	79824	39490
PP-289	Muhammad Hanif	Independent	98465	35419
PP-290	Sardar Ahmad Ali Darishak	PTI	86295	36310
PP-291	Sardar Muhammad Mohiudin Khan Khosa	PTI	90110	35840
PP-292	Sardar Awais Ahmad KhanLeghari	PMLN	94510	38866

 

In National election 2002, Khj. Sheraz Mahmood, Sardar Farooq Ahmad Khan Leghari, Mr.Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari, were prevalent candidates. A total of registered votes was 902618, valid were 358124, Polled out votes were 366813, and Rejected votes were 8689 recorded (Data obtained from ECP, Figure 2). 

Figure 2

Showing the total number of registered votes, valid votes, polled out votes and rejected votes among three national assemblies of District Dera Ghazi Khan during general election 2002. Data were collected from Election commission of Pakistan




AGE, Masculinity and Prerequisite of Respondents

The questionnaire survey was led to analyze the micro-level electoral policies in the District subjected to Research. The data were collected from various people in the age group to determine the points of view. There were five categories demarcated:

1.       Between the ages of 18 and 22

2.       Between the ages of 23 and 27

3.       Between the ages of 28 and 32

4.       Between the ages of 33 and 37

5.       Above the ages of 37

The data was collected mostly from all age groups. The survey involved more than 60 % of men and less than 40 % of women. A total of three divisions, eleven districts and their National assembly constituencies were studied to delimit the role of five different kinds of behaviors of different peoples were studied in terms of selection of their candidates.

 

Voting Behaviour in District Dera Ghazi Khan

Voting Behavior on Caste Based

Most of the populations harboring in Pakistan have do not have significant experience in general elections for selecting their political leaders. Political behaviors play important role in politics of any political system. Politics is an activity related to political system. A clear pattern of voting behavior drift was seen in all types of gender age groups. This is especially so in voting behavior on caste based was significantly lower from all the gender age groups above the 23-year-old age. A significant maximum value of age group (Between the ages of 18 and 22) was recorded (Table 4). The peoples of this age group participated significantly higher (79 %) than the peoples of gender age group (Between the ages of 33 and 37). During general election 2002, peoples of gender age between the 18 and 22-year-old play important role for the selection of political leaders on caste-based voting behavior’s (Table 4). Minimum values of age group (Between the ages of 23 and 27 years) were recorded (70.6 %) which select their leader on caste-based voting behavior (Table 4). Significant interaction between the gender age group and divisions indicated that much of variations found in voting behavior on caste based among the peoples of these areas for selection their political leader during the general election 2002 (Table 4). The results showed that much of the population of gender age group 18-22 years old prefer their political leader on caste based in south Punjab. Caste based voting behavior among the gender age group 18-22-year-old is a major cause of voting behavior.

 

Table 4. Different Voting Behaviors of Peoples of Three Divisions (Multan, D.G. Khan and Bahawalpur) During General Election 2002

Variables	Degree of Freedom	Mean Square	F-value	P-value
Voting Behavior on caste Based
Gender age group	4	755	7.26	***
Division	2	1037	9.72	***
Interactions	8	1638	15.34	***
Errors	225	107
Total	239
Tribal Voting Behavior
Gender age group	4	3068	1967	***
Division	2	3349	2147	***
Interactions	8	1088	6.98	***
Errors	225	156
Total	239
Urban Voting Behavior
Gender age group	4	9.55	1.26	NS
Division	2	81.78	10.79	***
Interactions	8	155.54	20.51	***
Errors	225	7.58
Total	239
Rural Voting Behavior
Gender age group	4	8.95	1.13	NS
Division	2	80.96	9.78	***
Interactions	8	160.21	19.39	***
Errors	225	6.93
Total	239
Voters turn outs Males
Gender age group	4	30.4	2.41	NS
Division	2	11.50	0.91	NS
Interactions	8	34.90	2.77	**
Errors	225	12.60
Total	239
Voters turn outs females
Voters turns outs Males
Gender age group	4	2.41		NS
Division	2	0.91		NS
Interactions	8	2.77		**
Errors	225
Total	239

 

Tribal Voting Behavior

The cumulative patterns of Tribal voting behavior together with progressive gender age group are analogous to the tendencies revealed by voting behavior on caste base (Table 4). When comparison is made between the different gender age group, the value of tribal voting behavior in gender age group 4 (Between the ages of 33 and 37) was significantly higher (64.20 %) than that of gender age group 1 (44.40 %)and gender age group 5 (50.5 %). indicate that in all the three divisions tribal voting behavior of respondents remained stable. The tribal voting behavior differences became increasingly evident as gender age group progressed (Table 4). These differential trends of the tribal voting behavior in terms of selecting their political leader had major effects in electoral politics (Table 4).

 

Table 5. Mean Values for Different Variables. (Values are Mean Across Three Divisions and Eleven Districts) During General Election 2002.

Gender Age Group (Values are in Percent %)
Variables		1	2	3	4	5	F-value
VBC	Mean	79.2	70.6	71.60	68.9	74.2	7.26***
TVB	Mean	44.4	50.10	59.70	64.20	50.50	19.67***
UVB	Mean	45.88	75.72	46.10	45.94	44.96	1.26NS
RVB	Mean	27.88	27.72	28.10	27.94	26.96	1.13NS
VTM	Mean	59.90	60.79	61.68	60.06	59.78	0.91NS
VTF	Mean	40.10	39.21	38.32	39.94	40.22	2.41NS

*VBC= Voting behavior on caste Based, TVB= Tribal voting behavior, UVB= Urban voting behavior, *RVB= Rural voting behavior, VTM= Voting turn out male, VTF= Voting turn out female

Urban Voting Behavior

The results of ANOVA describe that at district level Urban voting behavior reduced with increase in gender age group (Table 5). The interaction between Division and gender age groups was substantial (F = 10.79***, Table 5), suggesting that architectural configuration and degree of response to voting behavior varied among the age group. Table 5 showed that gender age group voting behaviour among the peoples of district remain consistent as it was evident from Table 3.2, F = 1.26 ^Ns, Urban voting behavior in division had less role in selecting their political leader.

Rural Voting Behavior

Contrary to Urban voting behavior Rural voting behavior was profound to micro level deviations in gender age group as the key factor was substantial (F= 80.96; P< 0.000; Table 4). Approximately, a two-hundred-meter distance among the different division caused a change in voting behavior for selecting their political leaders. However, the magnitude of reduction in Rural voting behavior as gender group progressed was gender specific. (Table 4). The Locality associated voting behavior changes in respondents (Table 3.1) were more pronounced in age group 3 (Between the ages of 28 and 32). Age group 1, 2 and 4 compared to age group 5 which change little at district level. These results showed that urban voting behavior had no significant role in selecting the political leader (F = 1.13^NS).   

 

Voters Turn out Males and Females

The increasing trends of Voter turnout males and females with increasing gender ager age group are comparable to the trends exhibited by all other voting behavior. When comparison is made between the gender age group turnout of male and female, the value of gender age group among the peoples of (Between the ages of 28 and 32) were significantly higher than that of age group 1, 2, 4 and 5 which showed that peoples of age group 28-32 years old participated in maximum values 61.68 % (male voter turnout). The results showed that the prime causes of the non-casting vote are inconvenient atmosphere did not have national identity card, had no name in voting lists, most of the women of all age group not take the interest in the selection of the representative (F= 2.41^NS) and distress of violence were the major causes of non-casting vote in the general election 2002.

During our field surveys, most of the respondents pleaded that Biradari and caste system encounter political leadership at local (District) and country levels. Punjab is niche for culturally diversified peoples and important province of Pakistan. History of Pakistan reveals that, it remained a victim of foreign annexations. The rule of foreign authorities affected religious domain, political hierarchy and socio-economic value-systems of the Punjab. Moreover, the Indian ancient history left an impression and powered concept of caste-system and Hinduism which is still mirrored in this region. There is significant impact of voting behaviors on caste based in rural area as compared to urban areas but depend on respondent age The field data analysis results already reflect that people of Southern Punjab (tribal and rural area) were mostly in favor of caste-based preferences of political leader in electoral system. It has been observed that most of the voters in rural and tribal areas cast their votes in favor of same caste candidate. This voting behavior trend was not followed much by voters of urban area. Besides these, in the rural areas communities, the spirit of caste system has very strong and deep roots. Results of field data for role of voting behavior showed that in each election at micro level caste based voting behavior, Tribal voting behavior, Urban voting behavior and rural voting behavior play a significant role with a site specific magnitude respectively in term of selection of political leaders in electoral system by the opinions of respondents and results published by general elections analysis. It is obvious that biradri, caste based voting behaviors had much of impact on any of new and non-landlord contestant to express his valuable political qualities and provide loyal services to common person of his constituency but it is recorded that with modernizing democracy, independence of media, easy access for higher education to common man, political party media campaign awareness of the peoples for their basic necessary needs and depravedness had modified the think tank of peoples.

Conclusion and Recommendation

The present study described that current electoral system has been changed. Our findings revealed that caste based, braderi, family head decision or other religious affiliation of candidate does not inter link with selection by the common person of any constituency of south Punjab. Peoples had their own preferences and vision across the literate or illiterate voter. Voter decides independently which person would be suitable political leader in his constituency. Because of the special nature of the different gender age group and their specific preferences are the main factors that determine the prominent political leader through electoral system. The present investigation showed that the electoral politics and impact of voting behavior on general election could be better understood through studying role and loyalty of each political leader along with his performance in past authority duration which he delivered in his constituency. These changes in particular voting behavior provide a useful conceptual link between progressive modernizations in electoral system and common person of south Punjab leaving beyond in any region rural, urban or tribal. Peoples take interest in participation in election for casting their valuable vote along with their female members of family. It has been observed that according to Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) report more than 1.5 million votes were rejected in General Election, (2013) which is higher than previous Elections. Political analysts say that this is the highest ever number of votes rejected during any electoral process. Election Commission of Pakistan should have to introduce some modern strategies and advance digital gadgets interwoven mechanisms to overcome this wastage of public valuable opinion in the form of votes.

Conclusion and Recommendation

The present study described that current electoral system has been changed. Our findings revealed that caste based, braderi, family head decision or other religious affiliation of candidate does not inter link with selection by the common person of any constituency of south Punjab. Peoples had their own preferences and vision across the literate or illiterate voter. Voter decides independently which person would be suitable political leader in his constituency. Because of the special nature of the different gender age group and their specific preferences are the main factors that determine the prominent political leader through electoral system. The present investigation showed that the electoral politics and impact of voting behavior on general election could be better understood through studying role and loyalty of each political leader along with his performance in past authority duration which he delivered in his constituency. These changes in particular voting behavior provide a useful conceptual link between progressive modernizations in electoral system and common person of south Punjab leaving beyond in any region rural, urban or tribal. Peoples take interest in participation in election for casting their valuable vote along with their female members of family. It has been observed that according to Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) report more than 1.5 million votes were rejected in General Election, (2013) which is higher than previous Elections. Political analysts say that this is the highest ever number of votes rejected during any electoral process. Election Commission of Pakistan should have to introduce some modern strategies and advance digital gadgets interwoven mechanisms to overcome this wastage of public valuable opinion in the form of votes.

References

• Adma, S. and Schoresch, D. (2007). The Political crisis of Pakistan in 2007. Austria: European University center for peace studies (EPU), 8(7), and p.p. 10.
• Ahmad, M. (2007). Legitimacy Crises in Pakistan (A Comparative Study of Political Behaviour). Pakistan: Journal of Political Studies, 1-14.
• Ahmed, A., Chaudhry, A.G., Fatima, Z., Hussain, S. and Haris Farooq, H. (2014). Gender and Voting Behavior: A Study of Biradari Based Politics of Punjab. Austria: European Academic Research, Vol. II, Issue 8, p.p. 10187-10195.
• Ahmed, M. (2004). Faisalabad Division ke Siasat per Biradarism kay Asraat, Un-published Ph. D Thesis: Pakistan: Department of Political Science and International Relations, Multan, B. Z. University. p.p: 46.
• Ahmed, M.and Naseem, F. (2011). Social System Influences Political System: A Comparative study of subcontinent. USA: Barkely Journal of Social Sciences, (1), P.P 1-10.
• Alavi, H. (1997). The Politics of Dependence, A Village in West Punjab: Australia: Journal of South Asian Studies, V- 4thEidtion, p.p. 56.
• Chaudhry, A. G. et al. (2014). Perception of Local Community and Biradari on Panchayat; an Exploratory Anthropological Study of Biradari in Village Saroki, District Gujranwala, Pakistan: Advances in Anthropology, 4, 53-58. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/aa.2014.42008.
• Kamran, T. (2009). Early Phase of Electoral Politics in Pakistan: 1950s. Australia: A Research Journal of South Asian Studies, Vol. 24, No.2, p.p. 257-282.
• Khan, F.K. and Musarrat, R. (2014). Electoral Politics in Pakistan (Elections 2013): A Case Study of District Muzaffar Garh. Pakistan: Journal of Public Administration and Governance, ISSN 2161-7104 2014, Vol. 4, No. 4.
• Leghari, M.F.K., Gillani, A.H. and Hayat, G. (2019). Electoral Politics in Pakistan (Elections 2013): A case study of Multan district. Mexico: Revista Dilemas Contemporáneos:Educación, Política y Valores. Año: VII Número: 1 Artículo no.:108 http://www.dilemascontemporaneoseducacionpoliticayvalores.com
• Rauf, A and Shah, H. (2015). Determinants of Turnout in Elections: A Case Study of 2008 General Elections in District Charsadda. Pakistan: FWU Journal of Social Sciences, Vol. 9, No.1, p.p. 111-117.
• Shah, K.M. and Sareen, S. (2018). Pakistan General Elections 2018: Analysis of Results and Implications
• Wilder, A.R. (1999). The Pakistani Voter: Electoral Politics and Voting Behavior in the Punjab. Karachi: Oxford University Press, p.p. 179.
• Ziring, L. (2005). Pakistan at the Crosscurrent of History. USA: One World Publication, p.p. 98.